Gartner Hype Curves

This page began from a comment made a decade ago: How accurate are the Gartner hype cycles? Below is a table documenting 10 years of emerging trends, from 2005 to 2014.

When to implement an emerging technology

“Don’t invest in a technology just because it is being hyped (trigger/peak) or ignore a technology just because it is not living up to early over expectations (trough). If a technology fits with your overall business strategy you should be evaluating it from the outset, if you are unsure, wait until more research is available (slope/plateau).” – Jackie Fenn, Gartner Analyst

Tables summarising Gartner Hype Cycle predictions

2005 data kept only for trends still listed 2006 onwards

Legend:

Curve position:
FT = Innovation Trigger (future potential),
PK = Peak of expectations (value may be over-hyped),
TR = Trough of disillusionment (expect change and consolidation),
SL = Slope of enlightenment (growth slowing but capability improving/standardisation),
MT = Plateau of productivity (reached maturity, stable for now before heading towards extinction)
Number is predicted years to reach plateau: <2, 2 to 5, 5 to 10, more than 10 or OBS if obsolete before plateau
— = no value for the year
x = no value and should be beyond plateau based on previous stats

Intepretation

Text color: Green = on prediction, Red = off prediction, Purple = gone before enough data to evaluate (usually 10+ yrs or instant MT), Black/Grey = insufficient data yet to evaluate
Highlight: Yellow = didn’t see it coming (straight in at <2); Blue = only appeared once; Combo = both
When very similar wording has been used, trends have been combined together (e.g.RFID variations)
Some additional notes and comments added containing own observations applicable up to 2014

Hardware-related

Emerging Technology	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009	2008	2007	2006	2005
3D scanners	SL 2-5	PK 5-10	FT 5-10	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
3D Bioprinting	FT 5-10	FT 5-10	FT 10+	FT 10+	—	—	—	—	—	—
3D printing	—	—	PK 5-10	PK 5-10	FT 5-10	FT 5-10	FT 5-10	PK 5-10	—	—
Enterprise 3D printing	SL 2-5	SL 2-5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Consumer 3D printing	PK 5-10	PK 5-10	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Erasable paper printing systems	—	—	—	—	—	—	FT 10+	—	—	—
Electronic paper/Digital ink	x	x	x	—	SL 2-5	SL 2-5	TR 2-5	TR 2-5	PK 2-5	PK 2-5
eBook readers	x	x	—	TR <2	TR 2-5	PK 2-5	—	—	—	—
Media tablets	x	—	SL <2	PK 2-5	PK 2-5	—	—	—	—	—
Tablet PC (pre-iPad, launched 2010)	x	x	—	—	—	SL 2-5	SL 2-5	—	TR 2-5	TR 2-5
Pen-centric tablet PCs	x	x	x	—	MT <2	—	—	—	—	—
Smartphone (pre-iPhone, launched 2007)	x	x	x	x	x	x	—	—	SL <2	—
Linux on desktop for business	x	x	x	x	x	—	—	—	—	TR 2-5
Surface computers	—	—	—	—	—	FT 5-10	FT 5-10	—	—	—
3D flat-panel TVs and displays	—	—	—	—	PK 2-5	FT 5-10	—	—	—	—
Ambient and glanceable displays	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	FT 5-10	—	—
Volumetric and holographic displays	FT 10+	FT 10+	FT 10+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Wearable user interface	PK 5-10	PK 5-10	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Gesture control/recognition	SL 2-5	TR 2-5	TR 2-5	TR 2-5	TR 2-5	—	—	PK 5-10	—	—
Tangible user interface	—	—	—	—	FT 10+	—	—	—	—	—
Human Augmentation	FT 10+	FT 10+	FT 10+	FT 10+	FT 10+	FT 10+	—	—	—	—
Computer-brain interface	FT 10+	FT 10+	—	FT 10+	FT 10+	—	—	—	—	—
Biometric authentication methods	—	SL 2-5	SL 2-5	SL 2-5	SL 2-5	—	—	—	—	—
Biochips	FT 5-10	FT 5-10	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Bioacoustic sensing	FT 10+	FT 10+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
DNA logic	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	FT 10+	FT 10+
Mesh networks: Sensor	—	TR 10+	TR 10+	TR 10+	TR 10+	TR 10+	—	—	TR 10+	TR 2-5
Location-aware technologies	x	x	x	x	x	x	—	SL <2	TR <2	—
Internet of Things	PK 5-10	PK 10+	FT 10+	FT 5-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
Smart robots	FT 5-10	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Mobile robots	—	PK 5-10	FT 10+	FT 10+	FT 10+	FT 10+	FT 10+	FT 10+	—	—
Autonomous vehicles	PK 5-10	FT 5-10	FT 5-10	—	FT 10+	—	—	—	—	—
Connected Home	FT 5-10	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Machine-to-machine comms services	TR 5-10	TR 5-10	TR 5-10	TR 5-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
Smart Dust	—	FT 10+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Quantum computing	FT 10+	FT 10+	FT 10+	FT 10+	—	FT 10+	—	—	FT 10+	FT 10+
Wireless power	—	—	PK 2-5	PK 2-5	PK 5-10	PK 5-10	—	—	—	—
RFID + case, + pallet, + item, + passive	—	—	—	—	—	TR 5-10	TR 5-10	TR 5-10	TR 5-10	TR 5-10
NFC	TR 2-5	TR 2-5	TR 2-5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4G/4G standard	—	—	—	—	PK 5-10	—	—	—	—	FT 5-10
Broadband over power lines	x	x	x	x	TR OBS	—	—	—	—	—
VoIP	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	MT <2	SL <2
IPv6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	PK 5-10	—
Grid computing	x	x	x	x	x	—	—	—	TR 2-5	TR 2-5
Tera architecture	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	FT 10+	FT 10+	—
Terahertz waves	—	—	—	—	FT 10+	—	—	—	—	—
Solid state drives	x	x	—	—	—	—	TR 2-5	—	—	—
Silicon anode batteries	—	—	FT 2-5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Electrovibration	—	FT 5-10	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Content and Processing

Emerging Technology	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009	2008	2007	2006	2005
Quantified self	FT 5-10	FT 2-5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Collective intelligence	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	PK 5-10	—	FT 5-10
Prescriptive analytics	FT 5-10	FT 5-10	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Predictive analytics	x	MT <2	MT <2	SL <2	SL <2	—	—	—	—	FT 10+
Prediction markets	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	FT 5-10	—
Location-aware intelligence	—	SL <2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Social analytics	—	—	PK 2-5	PK 2-5	FT 2-5	—	—	—	—	—
Social network analysis	x	x	x	—	—	TR 2-5	TR 2-5	TR 2-5	PK <2	—
Activity streams	SL 2-5	SL 2-5	PK 2-5	PK 2-5	PK 2-5	—	—	—	—	—
Social software suites/ Computing platform	x	x	—	—	PK 2-5	PK 2-5	TR 2-5	—	—
Web 2.0	x	x	x	x	—	TR <2	TR <2	TR <2	TR <2	—
Mash-up	x	x	x	x	x	x	—	PK <2	PK <2	—
Consumer-generated media	x	x	x	—	TR <2	—	—	—	—	—
Wikis	x	x	x	—	—	SL 2-5	TR 2-5	TR 2-5	TR 2-5	—
RSS Enterprise	x	x	x	x	—	—	—	TR 2-5	PK 2-5	—
Enterprise IM	x	x	x	x	x	x	—	MT <2	TR 2-5	—
Corporate Semantic web	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	TR 10+	PK 5-10	FT 2-5
Folksonomies	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	—	PK <2	—
Corporate blogging	x	x	x	x	—	SL <2	TR <2	—	TR <2	TR <2
Microblogging	x	x	—	—	TR 2-5	PK 2-5	PK 2-5	—	—	—
Speech analytics/Audio-mining	—	—	TR 5-10	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Speech-to-speech translation	PK 5-10	PK 5-10	FT 5-10	FT 5-10	FT 5-10	—	—	—	—	—
Speech recognition	MT <2	MT 2-5	SL 2-5	SL 2-5	SL 2-5	SL 5-10	—	—	—	—
Speech recognition for mobile	x	x	x	x	—	—	—	—	PK 2-5	—
Video analytics for cust svc	—	—	—	FT 5-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
Video search	—	—	—	—	FT 5-10	FT 5-10	—	—	—	—
Image recognition	—	—	—	PK 5-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
Natural-language question answering	PK 5-10	PK 5-10	FT 5-10	FT 5-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
Automatic content recognition	—	—	FT 5-10	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
QR/Color code	—	—	—	SL 2-5	—	—	—	—	—	—
Content analytics	TR 2-5	PK 5-10	—	—	—	—	—	PK 2-5	—	—
Text analytics/mining	—	—	TR 2-5	—	—	—	—	—	—	FT 5-10
Big data / Big data and extreme info processing	TR 5-10	PK 5-10	PK 2-5	FT 2-5	—	—	—	—	—	—
Extreme transaction processing	—	—	—	—	FT 5-10	—	—	—	—	—
Data Science	PT 2-5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Complex event processing	PK 5-10	PK 5-10	PK 5-10	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
In-memory analytics	SL <2	TR <2	TR 2-5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
In-memory DBMS	TR 2-5	PK 2-5	PK 2-5	PK 2-5	—	—	—	—	—	—
HTML5	—	—	PK 5-10	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
AJAX	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	—	TR <2	—

Software, Services and Concepts

Emerging Technology	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009	2008	2007	2006	2005
Smart Advisors	PK 5-10	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Mobile health monitoring	TR 5-10	TR 5-10	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Home health monitoring	—	—	TR 5-10	—	—	TR 5-10	—	—	—	—
Consumer telematics	SL 5-10	SL 5-10	SL 5-10	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Social TV	—	—	—	FT 5-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
Internet TV	—	—	TR 5-10	PK 5-10	PK 5-10	PK 2-5	—	—	—	—
Interactive TV	—	—	—	—	SL 2-5	—	—	—	—	—
Online video	x	—	—	—	—	TR 2-5	—	—	—	—
Video telepresence	x	x	—	—	TR 2-5	TR 2-5	PK 2-5	PK 2-5	—	—
Location-aware applications	x	x	x	MT <2	SL 2-5	SL 2-5	SL 2-5	SL 2-5	SL 2-5	SL 2-5
Affective Computing	FT 5-10	FT 5-10	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Augmented reality	TR 5-10	TR 5-10	PK 5-10	PK 5-10	PK 5-10	FT 5-10	FT 10+	—	—	FT 5-10
Portable personality	x	x	x	—	—	—	—	PK 2-5	—	—
Virtual assistants	—	PK 2-5	—	PK 5-10	TR 5-10	—	TR 5-10	—	—	—
Virtual Personal Assistants	FT 5-10	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Virtual worlds / Virtual reality	TR 5-10	TR 5-10	TR 5-10	TR 5-10	TR 5-10	TR 2-5	TR 2-5	PK 5-10	—	—
Idea management	x	—	SL <2	SL 2-5	TR 2-5	TR 2-5	TR 2-5	—	—	—
Gamification	TR 5-10	PK 5-10	PK 5-10	PK 5-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
Expertise location markets	x	x	x	—	—	—	—	PK 2-5	—	—
Behavioural economics	—	—	—	—	—	FT 10+	FT 5-10	FT 5-10	—	—
Neurobusiness	FT 10+	FT 10+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Software-Defined Anything	FT 5-10	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Smart Workspaces	FT 5-10	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Digital Security	FT 5-10	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
BYOD	—	—	PK 2-5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Application stores	—	—	PK 5-10	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Mobile application stores	x	x	—	SL <2	TR <2	—	—	—	—	—
Consumerisation	—	—	SL 2-5	SL 5-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
Basic web services	x	x	x	x	x	x	MT <2	—	—	—
Internal web services	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	MT <2	MT <2
Web platforms	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	FT 2-5	—	—
Cloud/web platforms	—	—	—	TR 2-5	PK 2-5	—	—	—	—	—
Hybrid cloud computing	TR 2-5	—	PK 5-10	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Private cloud computing	—	—	PK 2-5	PK 2-5	PK 2-5	—	—	—	—	—
Cloud computing	TR 2-5	TR 2-5	TR 2-5	PK 2-5	PK 2-5	PK 2-5	FT 2-5	—	—	—
Hosted virtual desktops	x	—	TR <2	TR 2-5	—	—	—	—	—	—
Crowd sourcing	—	—	PK 5-10	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Group buying	—	—	—	PK 2-5	—	—	—	—	—	—
Internet micropayment systems	—	—	—	—	SL 2-5	—	—	—	—	TR 5-10
Mobile OTA (over the air) payment	—	—	TR 2-5	—	—	TR 2-5	—	—	TR 2-5	—
NFC payment	—	—	PK 5-10	PK 5-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
Biometric payments	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	TR 5-10	—
Cryptocurrencies	PK 5-10	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Context-enriched services	—	—	—	FT 5-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
Context-delivery architecture	—	—	—	—	FT 5-10	FT 10+	FT 5-10	—	—	—
Service-oriented business applications	x	x	—	—	—	—	TR 2-5	—	—	—
Service-oriented architecture (SOA)	x	—	—	—	—	SL 2-5	SL 2-5	TR 2-5	—	TR 2-5
Model-driven architectures/approaches	x	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	FT 5-10	FT 5-10
Green IT	x	x	—	—	—	TR 2-5	PK 2-5	—	—	—